Thinking, in the open.
Original research and independent views — the same lens I bring to client portfolios. No house view to defend, no product to sell.
Price? What Price?
“Twenty years of buying without choosing” or “The market that stopped asking what things are worth.”
A single law from 2006 quietly rewired the entire market. Target-date funds now hold $4.8 trillion and buy the biggest stocks regardless of price. If you tell yourself you’re diversified because you own an S&P 500 fund, you’ve bet a third of your money on seven companies.
Read the piece →My Son Called My Bloomberg Podcast Boring. Then He Asked Me to Invest His $5.
It’s not the 1970s on the surface. Supply shocks are hitting an economy where everybody is spending, not one where nobody is. The real 1970s moment isn’t now. It’s what shows up after Millennials slow their spending and the worker, tanker, and housing shortages are still unfixed.
14 min read →OPM — Other People’s Money
You pay your life insurance premiums. You do the responsible thing. And along the way your money ends up financing airplanes, freight trains, rooftop solar panels, home improvement loans, parking garages, and the song catalogs of Bruce Springsteen. Private equity is reshaping the insurance industry and the assets backing your policy look nothing like they did ten years ago.
20 min read →Fifteen Minutes of Real, Actual Work
A private credit firm wired $300 million to finance a dividend and apparently didn’t bother to stress test whether the company could survive it. Then there’s the $372 million investment with 11 LinkedIn followers and no website. The people managing your money aren’t always doing the work you’d expect.
15 min read →There’s Alcohol in That
Private credit is dealing with some not so private issues. Redemption freezes. Funds restricting withdrawals. Default rates climbing. Have you ever watched a financial product blow up and thought ‘didn’t we already do this?’
15 min read →Adapt or Die
A room full of baseball scouts with decades of knowledge watching their entire framework get dismantled by Jonah Hill with a spreadsheet. Sound familiar?
10 min read →Thunderstruck
I’m back in black. The economy looks great on the surface, but Millennial spending is peaking, AI capex has reached insane levels, and inflation isn’t going quietly.
8 min read →If the way I think resonates, let’s talk.
The thinking on this page is the thinking behind every portfolio decision at Harvest Lane.
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Original research and independent views, sent to your inbox when I publish. Occasional — never noise.